Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Red, Covers Prince Edward Island Like The Dew...

Win or Lose, over the years I had a lot of fun working in the elections but now I'm just an armchair lackey. Back in the good old days we used polling as an important tool in helping understand what the issues were and what the electorate were looking for. Unfortunately I'll be the first to admit that once elected Governments tend to toss the polls away and start to work on their own agendas which ultimately gets them tossed out. But now-a-days a poll seems to be a tool to help the media predict the outcome of the election and in this case it maybe to sell some papers. Although this poll is a very small sample, I was predicting a similar outcome when the election was first called but about ten days ago I changed my prediction and called Easter safe and Milligan close if we were heading for a Harper majority. I don't think we're looking at any kind of majority Government so I'm now going to call a straight up Liberal Win here on PEI in spite of what this poll says. Surely if I'm right those high priced Editors at The Guardian will tap me for some free future advice before heading out to buy a poll... boys, how's Larry doing in Cardigan or do you need another poll....
Liberals on top across most of P.E.I.
The Guardian
The federal Liberal party remains eight points ahead of the governing Conservatives across much of P.E.I., but those numbers may be deceiving, according to polling data. The Guardian commissioned Corporate Research Associates to find out which party Islanders are most likely going to vote for in the Oct. 14 federal election.Pollsters sampled 601 Islanders.The poll shows support for the Liberal party at 46 per cent province-wide. That compares to 41 per cent for the Conservatives. But when Egmont is removed from the polling data, support for the Liberals increases to 47 per cent while support for the Conservatives decreases to 39 per cent — giving the Liberal party an eight-point lead. Don Mills, president and CEO of Corporate Research Associates, explains that there are wide discrepancies in the rest of P.E.I.While the sample size is too small to provide exact numbers, Mills said polling data indicates that it is a virtual dead-heat between Liberal Wayne Easter and Conservative Mary Crane.In Cardigan, Liberal Lawrence MacAulay appears to have a small but comfortable lead over Conservative Sid McMullin. But in Charlottetown, Liberal Shawn Murphy appears to have a substantial lead over Conservative Tom DeBlois. But Mills cautions that the margin of error is more than nine per cent in these riding breakdowns. “It just says to me that there may be a couple of ridings that are going to be a lot closer than last time,” said Mills, noting that in the 2006 federal election Liberals won the seats with between 2,900 and 4,600 votes. Support for the NDP remains at eight per cent across Prince Edward Island. In Egmont, that support increases slightly to nine per cent.But the NDP remains far and away Islanders’ second choice. When asked who Islanders would support if they could not support their number one choice, 31 per cent of Islanders picked the NDP. That compares to 13 per cent for the Green Party, 10 per cent for the Liberals and eight per cent for the Conservatives. The Green Party’s support remains at five per cent across the province. Support is weaker in Egmont, where only three per cent say they’re most likely to vote Green.In terms of leadership, support for Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper remains strong across P.E.I.When asked which one of the following individuals would you most prefer as prime minister of Canada, 36 per cent of Islanders picked Harper — an 11-point lead over his Liberal rival. Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was the choice of 25 per cent of Islanders.NDP Leader Jack Layton came in third with 17 per cent while the Green Party’s Elizabeth May placed fourth with five per cent. The Guardian commissioned Corporate Research Associates to conduct the poll. There were 601 Islanders interviewed. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points 19 times out of 20.The interviews were conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 5. In Egmont, 251 interviews were conducted over the same time period. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.2 per cent 19 times out of 20. In 2006, Mills said Islanders gave the Liberals 53 per cent support while the Conservatives, who were shut out in the last election, had 33 per cent.Now, Liberal support has fallen to 46 per cent province wide while the Conservatives are at 41 per cent. “There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to pick up a seat.”The Guardian will have more from the Corporate Research Associates’ poll on Wednesday, including a closer look at what issues are on the minds of Island voters.

No comments: