Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Election Prediction...big blue win

I'm quite surprised at how many emails I got today looking for my final predictions on today’s results so as an arm chair pollster here's my take. Four liberal seats on PEI all of which will be closer and the closest being Egmont (100 votes). Harper will win and get close to his majority but no real support out of Atlantic Canada. NDP will show some strength around Halifax and in parts of Ontario and BC. The Green party will have about 5% of the vote but more real support in BC. It was Dion's race to win but he put his own nail in his coffin when he gave up the Central Nova (Pictou) seat to the Greens which really sent a message to Liberals everywhere that voting Green was OK but the results will speak for themselves. Liberals won't be able to say that Dion's "Green Shift" didn't work as it did "shift" voters away from the Liberals and be split between the NDP and the Green party. Harper played it smart on the home stretch as he didn't act too arrogant or confident, which will work in his favour... he hasn't done a bad job so I don't think Canadians are ready to dump him just yet...

1 comment:

Mark said...

Looks like you might have had a speck of dust on your crystal ball making the Egmont prediction a bit fuzzy. Looks like more blue on the big map.